Is a new soil evalution system needed?

This question was posed in the January issue of Soybean and Corn Digest. The article examined the rising cost of land acquisition, and whether our current soil maps continue to accurately reflect the value of a parcel of farmland. In my recent steps toward becoming an appraiser, I've been looking at land, value, and soil maps differently. The soil maps we all use regularaly have been around for so many years, with little to no updating, does that also mean out soil make-up never changes? I was happy to read this article which addresses the same issues and thoughts that I have been wondering about.

According to the article, most of the soil maps in place today are still accurate. Instead of the lay of the soil across the landscape changing over time, which should alter the soil maps dramatically, it seems it is only the top soil and our technology that continually change.

Our current technology has closed the gap between good and poor soils through crop nutrition, GPS systems, hybrids, and tillage practices. In looking at comparable sales overall, there is a correlation between soil types and sales price. Although I wouldn't rely solely upon these statistics; it seems the higher the sale price, the better quality of the soil. I have always felt that a good indication of the quality of a farm is how much that farm can yield. The article cited a study of an Iowa farm, which had a CSR of 43 and produced 200 bushels of corn; but according to the soil maps, the farm in the study should've only been capable of producing between 120 and 140 bushels. This is an example of how better technology has raised the bar.

The CSR rating that Iowa uses penalizes land which has a slope because when the soil maps were created, it would've been difficult to pull a plow uphill. With today's technology and advancements in machinery, that is no longer the case.

This article also focused a lot of attention on top soil erosion. Many areas are eroding faster than they can naturally be rebuilt. Also, the recent practice of baling corn stocks is not helping rebuild top soil. I think it's important to be aware of how much erosion is occurring on our farms, and it seems I'm not the only one. Farms which used to utilize gravity flow irrigation, are now using pivot irrigation, and are benefitting from reducing the runoff that their old irrigation practices used to create. This is helping the farms protect against too much erosion too quickly.

Again, the article asks, "Is a new soil evalution system needed?" and I think the answer is no. I think it would be too difficult to change the soil maps we currently use, or add top soil thickness to them. Instead, I think it would be wise to begin keeping track of the thickness of our top soil and to take into serious consideration what a farm yields. Everyone values the land they own, and this article just served as a good reminder to keep track of these slower processes, which may otherwise go un-noticed. 

- Eric Geiger 

In mid September, I was grateful to have been the guest of a fellow real estate broker that specializes in the sale of ranch properties in western Nebraska, Colorado, Wyoming and South Dakota.  We looked at a lot of ranches and productive farms in the area over a two day period.  Unlike our friends in Texas, Western Nebraska looks exceptionally green with exceptionally good looking cattle.  I saw more pivots than I remember seeing in the past and we toured a 2,000 acre farm that had 1,800 acres under pivots that is presently offered for sale. It seems like there are some very viable opportunities presenting themselves in western Nebraska and we look forward to doing business with our friends in that part of the state.  

Carrie 

The June 30, 2011, USDA report shows 4.0 million added corn acres from its prior report and the market reacted as most of us would expect.  Thankfully we have seen some recovery in the market but it is interesting to understand exactly where those added acres came from.  Check out the article below to see where your state ranks thanks to data Issued by Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois Farm Management Specialist, as part of AgWeb Daily's July 4th edition.

Where Did the Corn Acres Come From?

July 4, 2011

By: University News Release

 
Courtesy of the the farm doc daily site.

Issued by Gary Schnitkey, University of Illinois Farm Management Specialist

USDA released its Acreage Report on June 30th and estimated planted corn acres for 2011 at 92 million acres. The 92 million acres is a 4 million acre increase – or a 4.5 percent increase – over 2010 acres of 88 million acres. A complete list of acre changes by state is shown in Table 1. In general, states in the western corn-belt have large increase in acres. Somewhat surprisingly, most states in the eastern corn-belt have not lost acres.

Of the 4 million acre increase, 60 percent occurs in four states:

       Nebraska (850,000 acres)

       Iowa (800,000 acres)

       South Dakota (650,000 acres)

       Minnesota (400,000 acres)

These four states are located in the western corn-belt where 2011 planting weather has been generally favorable. There are obvious exceptions to this favorable weather in areas where flooding has occurred; however, flooding has not resulted in acreage losses causing state acres to decline below 2010 levels.

Eight states have increases of over 100,000 acres and account for 32 percent of the increase in corn acres:

       Kansas (250,000)

       North Dakota (250,000)

       Wisconsin (250,000)

       Michigan (150,000)

       Arkansas (110,000)

       Mississippi (110,000)

       Kentucky (100,000)

       Missouri (100,000)

Generally, these states surround the heart of the corn-belt. 

Eastern corn-belt states have not lost acres. For example, Ohio has an increase of 50,000 acres and Indiana has the same acres as in 2010. Both of these states have experienced a wet spring, leading to concerns about whether acres would be prevented from planting or shift to soybeans. While shifting may have occurred, changes did not result in a decline in corn acres.

Illinois has a decline in acres. Illinois acres for 2010 are reported at 12,500,000, a decline of 100,000 acres from 2010 levels. While small, Illinois's decrease in acres differs markedly from Iowa's large increase. A wet spring may have contributed to Illinois' decline. Moreover, many Illinois farmers had poor yields on corn-after-corn in 2010, which may have lead farmers to back off from planting corn-after-corn in 2011.

The state with the largest drop in corn acres is Texas (350,000). Texas has experienced a large increase in cotton acres which may contribute to the corn acre decrease. Drought conditions also may contribute to the corn acre decrease.

Two final observations:

1. Western corn-belt farmers appear to have reacted to market signals that project much higher corn returns by planting more corn. It would have been interesting to see if eastern corn-belt farmers would have reacted to the same incentives had spring weather been more conducive to planting. Corn acres may have been higher in the eastern corn-belt had more normal weather occurred, leading to much higher national corn acres than expected.

2. Futures prices for corn fell after the release of the June 30th Acreage Report. Part of this decline may be due to actual corn acres being higher than market expectations. While higher than expected, yesterday's report of 92 million corn acres is the same as made by Joe Glauber for the U.S. Department of Agriculture at the 2011 Agricultural Outlook Conference in February. Even with poor weather in parts of the country, farmers with today's technologies have a remarkable ability to plant crops.

We are providing a link to a June 15, 2011, Omaha World-Herald article describing concerns expressed by political officials, USDA, Corp of Engineers and area farmers regarding the Missouri River flooding in Iowa and Nebraska. 

http://www.omaha.com/article/20110615/NEWS01/110619823/0#farmers-seek-flood-relief-answers

 Additionally, our own experience is documented in the images we captured below and best summarized by the area farmers we spoke to over the past several days.  There seems to be a consensus of opinion that the crop loss though potentially devastating, is the least of some people concerns.  The producers and land owners we spoke to from Tekamah, Nebraska to Thurman, Iowa, are wondering about everything from the structural integrity of the levies and upstream dams to soil conditions once the water recedes and the long term changes to the course of the river.  It is not uncommon to hear producers say that they have anywhere from 100 to 600(+) acres flooded out.  There is speculation from aged and well experienced farmers that soil saturation will reach several miles beyond the standing water line on either side of the river especially in those areas that are not met by bluffs or extreme elevation changes.

Though water levels are not forecasted to rise any further the fact that they are forecasted to remain where they are for several months is a real worry for everyone.  We visited with Rick Frost, producer, while in the Bellevue, Nebraska/Glenwood, Iowa area and Rick was taking the opportunity to move equipment to higher ground.  We also witnessed constant dump truck traffic hauling dirt to a nearby Iowa side levy that was experiencing sand boils. 

Conversations with area excavators suggest that they are plenty busy and buying equipment in anticipation of on-going work while the water is up and beyond, as dirt work and repairs are inevitable once the water has receded.  A heavy equipment dealer confirmed that their sales are up and used equipment is really a hot commodity right now.  This may come as a small blessing to some dealers given the on-going national economic downturn and proportionately slow construction equipment sales.

We maintain hope that flood control systems will prevail, minimizing distress and our neighboring land owners' and producers' resilience will remain strong.

Carrie Duffy and Eric Geiger

Flood Photos

The first three pictures are of a farm north of Tekamah along the river.  The edge of the field where the water is, is approximately 15 feet above normal river level.

Looking south the row of trees is the west side river bank.

Looking east, that is the pivot with all of the tires but one tower submerged.

Looking to the north, this shows where the water did take some crop and the crop left over on the edge.

This is Haworth Park at Bellevue located along the river.

These are the basketball hoops at Haworth Park almost completely submerged.

The low level flood waters are those of farm ground on the west side of the levee.  This is water pressure coming up from the ground and also some rain water which can no longer soak away.